In the Crosshairs: How Spain’s Progressive Foreign Policy is Blackmailed with 60,000 Lives

When 60,000 migrants are weaponized to breach a border, it’s a calculated diplomatic strike. Pushing them back solves nothing if the underlying politics don’t change. An investigative deep dive into the geopolitical blackmail of Spain by a US-Israel-Morocco alliance, and how the EU funds the “human ammunition.”

On July 31, 2026, the border gates between Morocco and Ceuta (Spain) were opened—after an estimated 60,000 people had been deliberately brought to this border point within a matter of days. The president of the Spanish enclave of Ceuta, Juan Vivas, addressed the press in disbelief. As cited by international news network RFI from the press conference, the crowds crossed the border almost unhindered. “That means 70 percent of Ceuta’s population,” Vivas explained, visibly shaken. It was an unprecedented logistical and security collapse that forced Spain to deploy the military and broker an informal ad-hoc repatriation agreement.

Moroccan police looked the other way; human rights activists from the Moroccan NGO AMDH noted that the border was left unguarded under “unusual circumstances.” The events in Ceuta are therefore not merely a migration issue, but a cold-blooded diplomatic attack—not aimed at Europe as a whole, but targeted specifically at Spain and its progressive policy.

That this is an established state playbook was extensively documented on the ground by Al Jazeera (both the English and Arabic newsrooms) during previous Ceuta border surges. This was particularly evident during the historic May 2021 crisis, which proved this exact tactic: television broadcasts and investigative reports showed Moroccan border guards suddenly opening gates and simply standing by watching. In interviews, affected individuals reported that Moroccan authorities told them the border was open—some were even deliberately transported near the fences by bus. International footage from 2021 proved beyond doubt: This is not a “spontaneous” attempt to cross, but a state-sanctioned and orchestrated operation.

“Border Leverage”: Migration as a Hybrid Weapon

Europe speaks of “migration pressure,” but the actual force behind this movement is political. Harvard political scientist Kelly M. Greenhill defines this tactic as “Coercive Engineered Migration” (CEM). Morocco operates as a highly complex “migration rentier state”. The strategy is simple but devastatingly effective: Whenever Spain or the EU makes political decisions that displease Rabat, Moroccan security forces loosen border controls. As soon as concessions are made, the valves close again.

The Chronology of Blackmail

• May 2021: Spain provides medical treatment to Western Saharan Polisario leader Brahim Ghali. Morocco retaliates by withdrawing border guards—roughly 8,000 migrants storm Ceuta.
• March 2022: Buckling under the massive migration pressure, Spain executes a historic U-turn and officially recognizes Morocco’s autonomy plan for the occupied Western Sahara.
• June 2022: The “Melilla Massacre.” Spain and Morocco resume cooperation, resulting in a deadly police crackdown at the border fence that leaves at least 27 dead.
• Fall 2025: The “GenZ 212” protests. A staggering youth unemployment rate of 35 percent forces the Moroccan regime to tolerate emigrations to release domestic political pressure.
• July 31, 2026: Total collapse. 60,000 migrants overrun the Ceuta border, fueled by open smuggling calls on social media.

The ultimate price for these “bouncer” services is both political and financial. Morocco primarily uses the weaponization of migrants to force international recognition of its sovereignty over the resource-rich Western Sahara. Meanwhile, Europe pays billions to outsource its own borders:

The Price of Fortress Europe (EU Payments to Morocco)

• €234 Million: EU Emergency Trust Fund for Africa (2015–2021), primarily for border security.
• €150 Million: Direct EU budget support for migration management (2022).
• €1.15 Billion: Bilateral aid from the European NDICI fund (2021–2027).
• €1.1 Billion: Investments through the Global Gateway initiative.

The Target Spain: A Progressive Disruptor

To understand why Spain, of all countries, has become the target of this orchestrated attack, one must look at Madrid’s political isolation. The government under Pedro Sánchez conducts a foreign policy that massively disrupts the status quo of the global right and the old powers. While the rest of Europe increasingly relies on total deterrence, the militarization of external borders, and the outsourcing of asylum procedures, Spain continues to demand legal migration routes and refuses to unconditionally support the harsh, anti-human rights course of “Fortress Europe.”

The decisive geopolitical rupture, however, occurred in the Middle East. On May 28, 2024, Spain took a historic step: the official recognition of the State of Palestine. Sánchez clearly positioned himself against the course of Washington and Tel Aviv, demanding an end to the violence in Gaza and blocking weapons shipments.

Military Disobedience and the Attack on the Veto Right

This independence from Washington has a concrete backstory. When tensions between the US, Israel, and Iran escalated, Madrid strictly refused to be blindly dragged into another Middle East war. Spain dug in its heels and denied the US unrestricted use of Spanish NATO military bases (such as Rota and Morón) for unilateral American strikes against Iran.

Simultaneously, Sánchez is directly attacking the architecture of European power: Spain is one of the most vocal advocates for abolishing the national veto right (unanimity principle) in EU foreign policy. Until now, external powers have been able to use pro-American or pro-Israeli proxies in the EU (like Hungary) to block any European condemnation. The fact that Madrid wants to break this veto and introduce majority voting to make the EU independent and capable of acting in foreign policy makes Spain highly dangerous to the old networks.

Additionally, Madrid dared a diplomatic tightrope walk in North Africa that was the last straw for Rabat. After years of icy radio silence, the Spanish government attempted to restore its shattered relations with Algeria—Morocco’s absolute geopolitical arch-enemy. Algeria is the primary supporter of the Western Saharan liberation front, Polisario. For the Moroccan king, any Spanish attempt to approach Algiers represents an ultimate betrayal of Moroccan claims to power. Through this strictly independent, anti-escalatory policy across multiple continents, Spain has maneuvered itself directly into the crosshairs.

The Unholy Alliance: The Rabat-Washington-Tel Aviv Axis

Israel’s retaliation was openly announced months in advance. When Spain recognized Palestine, Israeli Foreign Minister Israel Katz reacted promptly and blatantly. He accused the government in Madrid of “rewarding Hamas” and publicly threatened drastic, painful consequences. Tel Aviv knew full well that it held no direct military or economic leverage against Spain—but it knew who did: Morocco. Backed by the 2020 Abraham Accords, Rabat has risen to become one of Israel’s closest security allies in the Arab world, heavily armed with Israeli drones and surveillance technology.

However, the decisive backing for this attack comes from Washington. Under the doctrine of Donald Trump and the new American right, the left-wing government in Madrid is viewed as an ideological enemy. Trump, who has repeatedly declared war on the “radical left” in Europe and whose administration once recognized Moroccan sovereignty over Western Sahara as part of the deal for the Abraham Accords, has no interest in protecting Sánchez. On the contrary: US foreign policy tolerates or even encourages the punishment of a European NATO partner that dared to position itself as pro-Palestinian.

When Morocco now unleashes chaos upon Ceuta, the 60,000 migrants serve as geopolitical ammunition in a proxy war. Rabat pulls the trigger, but it does so in the absolute certainty that Israel considers the action a just retribution and Washington diplomatically covers its North African partner’s back.

A Colonial Anomaly: The Geographical Trap of Ceuta

To understand the mechanical force of this attack, one must confront the geographical and historical absurdity of this border. Ceuta (and its sister city Melilla) are physically located on the African continent but are 100 percent Spanish territory. They thus form the only physical land border between the European Union and Africa.

The Legacy of Colonialism

How did this happen? It is the legacy of European colonialism. Spain (and before that, Portugal) conquered these territories as early as the 15th and 17th centuries—centuries before the modern state of Morocco was even founded in 1956. From a Spanish perspective, these cities are just as “Spanish” as Madrid or Barcelona. From a Moroccan perspective, they are occupied African territories. This historical relic makes the city a perfect geopolitical lever today.

The Demographic Bomb and Schengen Special Status

The true power of this leverage lies in the bare numbers and in European law. Ceuta is extremely small: the enclave covers just 18.5 square kilometers and has a regular population of around 83,000. In addition, Ceuta has a special status: Although the city belongs to Spain, it is not part of the regular Schengen Area. This means that strict border controls take place even within Spanish territory before anyone is allowed to cross from Ceuta to the Iberian Peninsula. Ceuta acts as a European bottleneck.

When 60,000 people are brought into this tiny area within a few days, it equals almost 75 percent of the entire local population. The city’s infrastructure does not just collapse—it effectively ceases to exist.

The Inevitable Chain Reaction

This is exactly where Morocco’s strategic trap snaps shut. Spanish Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez immediately demanded that Morocco take the migrants back. But if Rabat refuses and plays for time, Spain is checkmated. A city the size of Ceuta cannot possibly accommodate or provide for 60,000 additional people.

If the Moroccan border remains closed, the Spanish government is forced, out of sheer physical and humanitarian necessity, to transport these people to the Spanish mainland by ship. Consequently, Morocco uses the colonial anomaly of Ceuta not just as a gateway, but as an instrument of coercion that dictates Spain to import the conflict directly into the heart of the European Union.

The European Domino Effect: How the Far-Right Weaponizes the Crisis

The ultimate proof of Europe’s vulnerability is unfolding in real time. Just hours after the full scale of the Ceuta crisis became visible, the European core began to fracture. Instead of showing solidarity with blackmailed Spain, right-wing forces across the European Union seized upon the situation in a coordinated political maneuver to attack Sánchez’s progressive government from a second front.

Meloni’s Schengen Threat and European Division

Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni led the charge. Posting on X (formerly Twitter), she announced an unprecedented escalation, dealing a fatal blow to European unity:

“Italy will not stand by idly. We are convening the relevant bodies and are subsequently prepared to intervene with extraordinary measures to defend our borders and the safety of our citizens, including the suspension of the Schengen Area with Spain.”

Meloni’s reaction exposes the fatal structural flaw in the EU’s migration architecture. While EU Commission President Ursula von der Leyen preaches “European solidarity,” the reality is a panicked collapse inward. At the exact same time Italy slams the door on a fellow EU member state, Meloni’s government is pioneering a system of outsourced detention in camps across the Balkans (the Albania model).

The Hardline Alliance: From AfD to Vox

Meloni does not stand alone in this strategy. Across Europe, right-wing populist and far-right parties echoed the narrative of an “invasion” to put maximum pressure on progressive administrations:

• AfD (Germany): The party immediately capitalized on the images from Ceuta for parliamentary motions and social media campaigns, demanding the immediate reinstatement of permanent national border controls in Central Europe and freezing EU equalization funds to Spain unless Madrid switches to an uncompromising policy of deterrence.
• Vox (Spain): Internally, Spain’s far-right Vox party acts as the domestic arm of this dynamic. It leverages the events at the African land border to frame Sánchez’s progressive migration reforms and his diplomatic stance on the Middle East as a “threat to national security” and “capitulation to Rabat.”

Internal Cannibalization

Fortress Europe does not just externalize its borders; it cannibalizes itself from within. Morocco pulled the geopolitical trigger, but Europe’s own structural racism, right-wing fearmongering, and decades of checkbook diplomacy built the weapon in the first place. Threats to suspend Schengen prove that the EU’s reliance on autocrats buys no real security—it merely surrenders progressive member states to blackmail and provides the European right with the perfect pretext to dismantle European freedom of movement.

Europe’s Checkbook Diplomacy: Billions for Looking the Other Way

Just how deeply the European Union is trapped in its self-made web of asymmetrical dependence was evident in Brussels’ immediate reaction to the 60,000 arrivals in Ceuta. EU Commission President Ursula von der Leyen took to X (formerly Twitter) to call the images “unacceptable,” demanding “swift returns” and announcing Frontex support.

Yet, the most revealing sentence of her statement was the conclusion: “I am confident that our close partnership with Morocco will help deliver concrete results.”

It is the epitome of European hypocrisy: Praising the “close partnership” with the exact autocrat who intentionally escalated the problem to blackmail Europe. But this checkbook diplomacy is no accident; it is a calculated political choice. Paralyzed by the fear of right-wing populist victories at home, Brussels chooses the most convenient route: wiring billions in budget support to third countries to do the “dirty work” at the borders. The EU isn’t buying genuine security; it is buying the illusion of control and the privilege of looking the other way when human rights are violated. As long as Brussels insists on outsourcing its borders, the EU will remain a hostage to its neighbors

Fortress Europe Legally Arms Itself

Instead of tackling the root causes, creating legitimate migration pathways, and ending exploitation, Europe is merely arming itself legally for the next blackmail attempt. In 2026, the new EU Pact on Migration and Asylum takes full effect. Its far-reaching force majeure regulations allow EU states to massively restrict asylum rights and implement fast-track border procedures as soon as a third country “instrumentalizes” migrants.

Europe is building its legal and physical walls ever higher, delegating violence to its neighbors, and closing its eyes to the consequences. Until the next border is opened—and until the next bodies wash up from the Atlantic.

The Forgotten Periphery: How Europe’s Billions Manufacture “Human Ammunition”

The people storming the fences often hail from regions systematically neglected by the Moroccan state. Europe claims to combat the root causes of migration locally, yet it adds fuel to the fire: Brussels pours its billions into state-directed, top-down prestige projects like the industrial deep-sea port Nador West Med or the luxury tourism resort Marchica Lagoon.

The bitter reality on the ground: These investments barely reach the uneducated local population. They primarily benefit foreign investors and elites from metropolises like Casablanca and Rabat. Simultaneously, the Moroccan state has brutally crushed informal cross-border trade, stripping tens of thousands of women (the so-called porteadoras) of their sole livelihoods. Highly professional human and drug smuggling networks have seamlessly filled this economic vacuum.

The GenZ 212 Protests and the Weapon of Desperation

The rage of the younger generation erupted in the fall of 2025 during the massive “GenZ 212” protests against crumbling hospitals and rampant corruption. The regime responded with iron-fisted repression and the use of live ammunition.

This is exactly where the geopolitical circle of our thesis closes: When the Moroccan government refuses to contain the frustration of its own youth through economic reforms, it temporarily tolerates their exodus to Europe to artificially lower the domestic boiling point. The bitter truth is that Europe’s checkbook diplomacy funds the very autocratic structures that produce this desperation. The EU is breeding a generation of disenfranchised youth, whom Morocco ultimately picks up as “human ammunition” to fire in its asymmetric war against Spain.

The Atlantic Mass Grave: The Deadly Price of Geopolitics

As early as July 31, nearly 48,000 people had already turned back. The Spanish military is blocking everything; there are no ferries to the Spanish mainland. People are realizing they are trapped there. Yet the border is “open” again for the return journey: Morocco is apparently just letting them climb back over. This shows that Morocco is in complete control of the situation at the border. As long as policymakers in Brussels and Washington view human beings merely as geopolitical bargaining chips and block legal escape routes, the most vulnerable will pay the ultimate price. When borders are abused as pressure valves and there is no solution in their home countries, people will keep trying—and dying in the process.

For thousands of Sub-Saharan Africans, northern Morocco has become a brutal dead end. They live in inhumane conditions in the forests of Mount Gourougou, where they are subjected to regular, extremely violent police raids. To regulate the pressure at the fences away from the cameras, Moroccan authorities resort to a cruel practice: “bussing.” People are tied up, loaded onto buses, and abandoned hundreds of miles deep in the uninhabited desert—a state-organized “violence of abandonment.”

The Alternative Route to Death

Anyone wanting to escape this hell, which is co-financed by the EU and the US, has no choice but to flee onto the open sea. Because the land borders are heavily militarized and geopolitically sealed off, people are forced onto the route to the Canary Islands. In doing so, they step onto the deadliest migration route in the world.

The staggering scale of this necropolitics is documented by the Spanish NGO Caminando Fronteras. The raw numbers reveal the true victims of this political theater:

• Year 2023: Over 6,000 dead
• Year 2024: 10,457 dead (including 1,538 children)
• January – May 2025: 1,865 dead
• January – May 2026: 1,317 dead

Often, the bodies of those who were driven onto the ocean in unseaworthy wooden boats as geopolitical ammunition wash up in the Caribbean weeks later. It is the absolute moral bankruptcy of the West.

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