Even if the Geneva talks continue, they are not peace negotiations

United Nations building in Geneva during stalled Ukraine–Russia talks

When Ukraine is pres­su­red by the United States to cede ter­ri­to­ry becau­se Russia demands the full with­dra­wal of Ukrainian forces from the Donbas—including the 20 per­cent of Donetsk that Russia never mana­ged to capture—this is not a peace nego­tia­ti­on but the pre­pa­ra­ti­on of a capi­tu­la­ti­on. The talks that began in Geneva on Tuesday and were offi­ci­al­ly inten­ded to end the war con­cluded on the second day after less than two hours, when the Russian dele­ga­ti­on left the venue. Both sides announ­ced fur­ther rounds, but ending a war and crea­ting peace are two enti­re­ly dif­fe­rent things. Ukraine is being pushed to accept con­di­ti­ons it has rejec­ted for the past four years. And this rai­ses the ques­ti­on: Why did Ukraine fight for four years if it is now expec­ted to sur­ren­der territory 

Politically, the pro­cess is blo­cked becau­se the cen­tral issues are irre­con­cilable. Zelenskyy hims­elf said that the­re was pro­gress on the mili­ta­ry track but only “dia­lo­gue” on the poli­ti­cal track—and that the posi­ti­ons remain far apart. These poli­ti­cal issues are pre­cis­e­ly the unre­sol­va­ble points: the ter­ri­to­ries occu­p­ied by Russia, the Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant, the demand for ter­ri­to­ri­al con­ces­si­ons, and the con­di­ti­ons of a ceas­e­fi­re. Russia is deman­ding what Ukraine can­not accept under its own con­sti­tu­ti­on, and the United States is pushing for a solu­ti­on that under­mi­nes inter­na­tio­nal law. This makes the poli­ti­cal track not mere­ly difficult—it makes it struc­tu­ral­ly blocked. 

The rea­li­ty is that poli­ti­cal pres­su­re on Ukraine does not end with the ear­ly con­clu­si­on of the Geneva round—it is struc­tu­ral, not situa­tio­nal. If ter­ri­to­ri­al con­ces­si­ons are now being framed as “rea­li­stic,” it is not becau­se cir­cum­s­tances have chan­ged, but becau­se inter­na­tio­nal poli­tics is wil­ling to pre­sent a fal­se solu­ti­on as ine­vi­ta­ble. Ukraine is mili­ta­ri­ly depen­dent on Europe and even more so on the United States. And befo­re the war, it was not even per­mit­ted to build the mili­ta­ry capa­ci­ty it would have needed—Western sta­tes have con­sis­t­ent­ly pre­ven­ted count­ries out­side the NATO frame­work from deve­lo­ping genui­ne defen­se auto­no­my, with Iran being the clea­rest exam­p­le. The logic is absurd: a sta­te that was not allo­wed to streng­then its defen­ses is now expec­ted to sur­ren­der ter­ri­to­ry becau­se it is not mili­ta­ri­ly strong enough. This is not the logic of peace but the logic of power. First self‑defense is restricted—and when war comes, the coun­try is told to give up its land. Under inter­na­tio­nal law, howe­ver, the pro­hi­bi­ti­on on acqui­ring ter­ri­to­ry by force remains abso­lu­te, and the UN Charter makes clear that aggres­si­on can­not crea­te lawful rights. Moreover, Article 52 of the Vienna Convention on the Law of Treaties holds that agree­ments con­cluded under the thre­at or use of force are void. In this sen­se, so‑called “rea­li­stic” ter­ri­to­ri­al con­ces­si­ons made under poli­ti­cal or mili­ta­ry pres­su­re can­not be regard­ed as sove­reign decis­i­ons. What is pre­sen­ted as a peace pro­cess incre­asing­ly resem­bles an out­co­me shaped by struc­tu­ral coer­ci­on rather than genui­ne diplomacy.

Even after the ear­ly end of the Geneva ses­si­on, U.S. poli­ti­cal pres­su­re on Ukraine con­ti­nues: Ukraine is expec­ted to accept con­di­ti­ons pre­sen­ted as a peace solu­ti­on but which have not­hing to do with peace. This is not a legal argu­ment but a poli­ti­cal one. A sta­te wit­hout its own mili­ta­ry deter­rent can­not make free decis­i­ons. Under inter­na­tio­nal law, agree­ments made under the thre­at or use of force are con­side­red void, and ter­ri­to­ri­al con­ces­si­ons made under poli­ti­cal or mili­ta­ry pres­su­re can­not be regard­ed as free or sove­reign decisions.

The American dele­ga­ti­on in Geneva is unu­sual­ly com­po­sed: Jared Kushner, Steve Witkoff, and U.S. Army Secretary Dan Driscoll. Parallel to the Ukraine talks, Witkoff and Kushner held indi­rect nuclear dis­cus­sions with Iran in the morning—a rare attempt to mana­ge two glo­bal cri­ses simul­ta­neous­ly. Driscoll had alre­a­dy told European ambassa­dors that Europe could not match Russia’s arms pro­duc­tion and that Ukraine was not mili­ta­ri­ly capa­ble of recap­tu­ring lost ter­ri­to­ry. “Now is the best time for peace,” he said. It is the lan­guage of a power acting not out of moral con­vic­tion but stra­te­gic calculation.

The Ukrainian dele­ga­ti­on is high-level: intel­li­gence chief Kyrylo Budanov, Chief of the General Staff Andrii Hnatov, diplo­mats, mili­ta­ry offi­ci­als, and poli­ti­cal repre­sen­ta­ti­ves. Chief nego­tia­tor Rustem Umerov empha­si­zed that the dele­ga­ti­on was working “con­s­truc­tively, focu­sed, and wit­hout exces­si­ve expec­ta­ti­ons.” The focus was on secu­ri­ty gua­ran­tees, huma­ni­ta­ri­an issues, and an ener­gy ceas­e­fi­re. Yet while nego­tia­ti­ons were taking place in Geneva, Russia con­tin­ued attack­ing Ukraine’s ener­gy infra­struc­tu­re. Just hours befo­re the Geneva ses­si­on, Russia car­ri­ed out a large‑scale com­bi­ned drone‑and‑missile strike across Ukraine. In Odesa, the impact was imme­dia­te: hea­ting and water sys­tems fai­led for tens of thou­sands, and seve­ral civilians—including children—were injured.

Europe was pre­sent in Geneva but wit­hout influence. Security advi­sers from Germany, France, Italy, and the United Kingdom were on site but spo­ke only on the mar­gins with the Ukrainian and U.S. dele­ga­ti­ons. They did not par­ti­ci­pa­te in the actu­al nego­tia­ti­ons. Mediation was enti­re­ly in American hands: Special Envoy Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner led the talks on Washington’s behalf.

The UN Charter is clear: Aggression is pro­hi­bi­ted. Annexation is pro­hi­bi­ted. Territory can­not be acqui­red by force. No sta­te may com­pel ano­ther sta­te to sur­ren­der land. But the Security Council is paralyzed—because of Russia’s veto. Russia is a veto sta­te. The result: International law exists, but it is not enforced. A veto sta­te can vio­la­te inter­na­tio­nal law—and simul­ta­neous­ly pre­vent the inter­na­tio­nal com­mu­ni­ty from responding.

When the United States “deci­des” some­thing, it does not chan­ge inter­na­tio­nal law—but it chan­ges rea­li­ty. International law remains, but it is not enforced. International law exists becau­se sta­tes agreed to it, codi­fied it in trea­ties, and courts app­ly it—but it only beco­mes effec­ti­ve when power allows it.

Geneva does not show how peace is crea­ted. Geneva shows how peace is defi­ned when power is une­qual­ly dis­tri­bu­ted. Ukraine is expec­ted to accept what inter­na­tio­nal law pro­hi­bits. Russia demands what it never con­que­r­ed. The United States deci­des what is “rea­li­stic.” Europe wat­ches. And the UN can­not enforce the law becau­se a veto sta­te blocks the very rules it breaks.

The result is a world order in which the aggres­sor may make demands and the vic­tim is pres­su­red into con­ces­si­ons. A world order in which mili­ta­ry depen­den­cy replaces poli­ti­cal decision‑making. A world order in which the lan­guage of peace is used to dis­gu­i­se the logic of power. 

If a sta­te that was not allo­wed to arm its­elf is expec­ted to sur­ren­der ter­ri­to­ry in war, this is not a peace pro­cess but the retroac­ti­ve legi­ti­miza­ti­on of vio­lence. And when inter­na­tio­nal poli­tics pres­ents this as “ine­vi­ta­ble,” it is not diplo­ma­cy but an admis­si­on that law wit­hout power is worthless. 

Peace can­not emer­ge when inju­s­ti­ce is declared the solution. 

And as long as power over­ri­des law, Geneva will not end this war—it will only reve­al how une­qual the world tru­ly is. 

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