The Cycle of Fear: Iran’s Uranium as a Symptom—and Why Disarmament by the Great Powers Remains the Only Path to Peace

Bushehr Nuclear Power Plant in Iran, photographed by IAEA/Paolo Contri, showing Iran’s civilian nuclear infrastructure.
Bushehr Nuclear Power Plant in Iran. Photo: IAEA / Paolo Contri.
This ent­ry is part 3 of 3 in the series The Four Lies of the World Order

The Four Lies of the World Order 

Map of Iran with nearby US military bases illustrating the unequal power dynamics behind the equality of states debate.

The Equality of States—A Political Illusion 

Donald Trump stands at the U.S.–Mexico steel border barrier while meeting with the Border Patrol Chief.

No Borders for the United States in the World – but Borders for the World at the United States 

Bushehr Nuclear Power Plant in Iran, photographed by IAEA/Paolo Contri, showing Iran’s civilian nuclear infrastructure.

The Cycle of Fear: Iran’s Uranium as a Symptom—and Why Disarmament by the Great Powers Remains the Only Path to Peace 

Iran’s cen­tri­fu­ges spin not out of ambi­ti­on but out of fear. This fear grows from deca­des of iso­la­ti­on and sanc­tions and from the memo­ry of govern­ments that col­lap­sed when they had no pro­tec­tion. The world sees ura­ni­um. Iran sees sur­vi­val. And this dif­fe­rence in per­cep­ti­on lies at the cen­ter of the Iran nuclear pro­gram and the wider strugg­le over Middle East security.

A History Written in Betrayal and Intervention

Iran’s fear did not begin with cen­tri­fu­ges. It began in 1953, when the United States and Britain over­th­rew Iran’s demo­cra­ti­cal­ly elec­ted prime minis­ter. That moment left a wound that never hea­led, becau­se it taught Iran that for­eign powers could remo­ve its lea­ders when­ever they wis­hed. And when the Shah fell in 1979, Iran ente­red a new era of isolation.

The Iran nuclear pro­gram its­elf began long befo­re the Islamic Republic. In the 1970s, the United States, Germany, and France hel­ped the Shah build a civi­li­an nuclear ener­gy sec­tor. Iran wan­ted elec­tri­ci­ty and sci­en­ti­fic pro­gress, and the West wan­ted a sta­ble part­ner. These ori­g­ins mat­ter, becau­se they show that the Iran nuclear pro­gram was born as a moder­niza­ti­on pro­ject, not as a weapon.

Everything chan­ged after the revo­lu­ti­on. Iran lost its allies and soon faced a bru­tal eight‑year war with Iraq. Saddam Hussein inva­ded Iran with the sup­port of Western govern­ments, and he used che­mi­cal wea­pons while the world loo­ked away. Iran lear­ned that no one would defend it. No trea­ties. No alli­ances. And no gua­ran­tees. Only self‑reliance. This histo­ry shapes Iran’s world­view far more than ideo­lo­gy ever could.

A Region Built on Imbalance

Iran lives in a regi­on whe­re power is uneven­ly dis­tri­bu­ted. Israel pos­s­es­ses nuclear wea­pons. Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates buy the most advan­ced American wea­pons. The United States main­ta­ins more than 40 mili­ta­ry bases around Iran. And the Strait of Hormuz—Iran’s eco­no­mic lifeline—remains under con­stant US surveillance.

Iran sees the­se rea­li­ties not as abs­trac­tions but as thre­ats. And when a sta­te feels sur­roun­ded, it seeks pro­tec­tion. That pro­tec­tion often takes the form of deterrence.

Iran also wat­ched what hap­pen­ed to other govern­ments that lacked deter­rence. Iraq had no nuclear pro­gram when it fell. Libya gave up its pro­gram and col­lap­sed. Afghanistan reli­ed on for­eign pro­tec­tion and lost ever­y­thing. North Korea kept its wea­pons and remains untouch­ed. These examp­les form the back­bone of Iran’s stra­te­gic thin­king. Iran does not seek con­fron­ta­ti­on. It seeks to avo­id the fate of tho­se who trus­ted the world and paid the price.

The Moment Suspicion Became Policy

In 2002, the dis­co­very of unde­clared faci­li­ties in Natanz and Arak trans­for­med the Iran nuclear pro­gram into a glo­bal con­cern. Western govern­ments feared that Iran could use the same tech­no­lo­gy for wea­pons, while Iran insis­ted that it wan­ted ener­gy and medi­cal rese­arch. Both sides spo­ke past each other, and mis­trust repla­ced dialogue.

Uranium enrich­ment is not ille­gal. Many count­ries enrich ura­ni­um for civi­li­an use. The pro­blem beg­ins when trust dis­ap­pears. And trust dis­ap­peared long befo­re Iran rea­ched 60 per­cent enrichment.

The Rise and Collapse of Diplomacy

In 2015, the nuclear deal crea­ted a rare moment of hope. Iran accept­ed strict limits and inspec­tions and redu­ced enrich­ment to 3.67 per­cent. In return, sanc­tions eased. The deal work­ed. Middle East secu­ri­ty impro­ved. And the world saw a path toward glo­bal disarmament.

Then the United States with­drew from the agree­ment in 2018. Iran lost the eco­no­mic bene­fits and the poli­ti­cal gua­ran­tees. And when a deal col­lap­ses, fear returns. Iran increased enrich­ment again and rea­ched 20 per­cent and later 60 per­cent. This num­ber sounds alar­ming, yet it remains a poli­ti­cal signal rather than a mili­ta­ry step. Iran wants to show that it can respond to pres­su­re. It does not want a war that it can­not win.

Iran also con­tin­ued to allow inspec­tions for years after the US with­dra­wal, which shows that Iran did not rush toward a bomb. It wai­ted for diplo­ma­cy. And diplo­ma­cy did not return.

Why 60 Percent Matters—and Why It Does Not Mean a Bomb

The jump from 60 per­cent enrich­ment to weapons‑grade mate­ri­al is tech­ni­cal­ly short, alt­hough Iran still needs a poli­ti­cal decis­i­on to take that step. And Iran under­stands that such a decis­i­on would bring dis­as­ter. A nuclear wea­pon would trig­ger regio­nal escala­ti­on and inter­na­tio­nal iso­la­ti­on. Iran wants the opti­on, not the bomb.

Experts call this nuclear laten­cy, which sim­ply means the abili­ty to build a wea­pon wit­hout choo­sing to do so. It is not a secret pro­gram. It is a war­ning to the world: “Do not attack us.”

Iran also lacks key com­pon­ents of a func­tion­al nuclear wea­pon: it has no tes­ted war­head design, no minia­tu­ri­zed pay­load, no relia­ble long‑range deli­very sys­tem, and no histo­ry of nuclear test­ing. A bomb is not a switch. It is a com­plex sys­tem that Iran has not built.

The Global Nuclear Order Rests on Inequality

The world focu­ses on Iran becau­se it is easier than con­fron­ting the deeper issue. The glo­bal nuclear order rests on an old hypo­cri­sy. Five sta­tes hold thou­sands of war­heads and ask ever­yo­ne else to trust them. They speak of sta­bi­li­ty while expan­ding their arse­nals. They demand res­traint while refu­sing to prac­ti­ce it. Iran reacts to this imba­lan­ce. It does not crea­te it.

The Nuclear Non‑Proliferation Treaty obli­ga­tes nuclear‑armed sta­tes to pur­sue dis­ar­ma­ment. They have not done so. Instead, they moder­ni­ze their arse­nals and expand their mili­ta­ry pre­sence. Iran sees this beha­vi­or and con­cludes that the world rewards power, not compliance.

The UN Security Council rein­forces this imba­lan­ce by allo­wing nuclear‑armed sta­tes to shape glo­bal rules while exemp­ting them­sel­ves from them.

The Human Cost of Sanctions and Isolation

Sanctions have devas­ta­ted Iran’s eco­no­my. They have wea­k­en­ed its cur­ren­cy, limi­t­ed its access to medi­ci­ne and pushed mil­li­ons into pover­ty. These pres­su­res do not wea­k­en Iran’s resol­ve. They streng­then its belief that only deter­rence can pro­tect it from for­eign coercion.

Iran has a young, edu­ca­ted popu­la­ti­on that wants sta­bi­li­ty and eco­no­mic oppor­tu­ni­ty. Yet sanc­tions block invest­ment, trade, and growth. A sta­ble Iran would bene­fit the regi­on. A cor­ne­red Iran beco­mes unpredictable.

Diplomacy Iran Tried—and the World Ignored

Iran has made seve­ral diplo­ma­tic offers that the world rare­ly remem­bers. In 2003, Iran pro­po­sed a Grand Bargain that included nuclear trans­pa­ren­cy, reco­gni­ti­on of Israel’s bor­ders, and coope­ra­ti­on against extre­mist groups, yet the United States rejec­ted it.

In 2015, Iran accept­ed the most intru­si­ve inspec­tion regime in the world, and the United States later aban­do­ned it. In 2021, Iran signal­ed wil­ling­ness to return to the deal, but nego­tia­ti­ons stal­led. These moments show that Iran is not unwil­ling to nego­tia­te. It is unwil­ling to surrender.

Why Disarmament Must Begin With the Great Powers

Real peace will not begin in Tehran. It will begin in Washington, Moscow, Beijing, Paris, and London. When the gre­at powers redu­ce their nuclear arse­nals, other sta­tes will no lon­ger need nuclear shields. Middle East secu­ri­ty will impro­ve when the regi­on stops living under the shadow of for­eign inter­ven­ti­on. And the Iran nuclear pro­gram will lose its pur­po­se when Iran no lon­ger fears collapse.

Global dis­ar­ma­ment is not naï­ve. It is ratio­nal. It redu­ces the risk of war, lowers glo­bal ten­si­ons, and crea­tes space for diplo­ma­cy. It also res­to­res moral cre­di­bi­li­ty to a sys­tem that has lost it.

A Different Vision of Security

Peace requi­res a new defi­ni­ti­on of power. Not power through wea­pons, but power through coope­ra­ti­on. Not domi­nan­ce, but balan­ce. Not fear, but trust. Iran enri­ches ura­ni­um becau­se the world taught it that sur­vi­val depends on strength. If the gre­at powers choo­se glo­bal dis­ar­ma­ment, they can teach a dif­fe­rent les­son. And that les­son could final­ly break the cycle of fear.

The Four Lies of the World Order

No Borders for the United States in the World – but Borders for the World at the United States