Europe does not act because it has a vision.
Europe acts because it has no choice—constrained by its own institutions and by a world it no longer shapes.
When Pankaj Mishra appeared on the German television program Precht in March 2023, he argued that Germany must free itself from its “sleepwalking obedience” to the United States and assume an independent role as a mediator between global power centers. Richard David Precht did not fundamentally disagree, but he emphasized that Germany remains culturally, politically, and, in terms of security, firmly anchored in the West. The exchange revealed a deeper truth: Germany cannot simply reinvent itself as an independent actor because its strategic room for maneuver is structurally limited by its place within the European Union and by a global order it no longer controls. This lack of strategic autonomy is precisely why Europe’s sudden turn toward India was not a deliberate choice but a reaction to external pressure.
Germany would never, of its own accord, have considered negotiating a comprehensive free‑trade agreement with India. Without the growing unpredictability of the United States under President Trump, such an agreement would never have appeared on the political agenda.
A free‑trade agreement with India does not necessarily imply an “Eastern orientation.” But when an agreement does not arise from economic logic and instead emerges as a reaction to the volatility of the United States, it inevitably takes on a geopolitical meaning that resembles an Eastern shift. Not because Europe consciously turns toward the East, but because it is being pushed away from the West. That is what makes this step so fundamentally dishonest. Europe does not act out of affinity, sympathy, or ideological alignment. It acts because it must.
India and the European Union present their free‑trade agreement as an economic breakthrough. In reality, it is a response to a global landscape that has transformed dramatically over the past decade.
Negotiations began in 2007 with ambitious goals but quickly collapsed due to conflicting interests. The EU demanded extensive market liberalization, while India sought to protect key industries. In 2013, the talks were abandoned.
Between 2013 and 2021, global power dynamics shifted rapidly: the United States began using trade policy as a tool of pressure, China expanded its influence, and India positioned itself as an autonomous power in the Global South. Europe could no longer afford to ignore India.
When negotiations resumed in 2021, they were no longer about technical details but about geopolitical positioning. Europe sought alternatives to the United States and China; India sought partners who could support its modernization without compromising its strategic autonomy. Both sides acted out of strategic necessity.
In February 2025, Ursula von der Leyen and Narendra Modi set a deadline. At the 16th India–EU Summit in New Delhi, the agreement was finally concluded: a free‑trade zone encompassing two billion people. Europe gains access to one of the world’s largest growth markets; India gains access to technology and investment—benefits it could have received much earlier.
Germany, meanwhile, had long relied on the United States while deepening its economic dependence on China. India played virtually no role. Only the geopolitical shocks of recent years—U.S. tariffs, the energy crisis, supply chain disruptions—forced Berlin to reconsider. Germany, too, is only now changing course: due to the erratic tariff policies of President Trump, German companies are reducing their activities in the United States and increasing their investments in China, as reported by Der Spiegel.
But perhaps Europe’s real task is to change its political culture: to stop reacting only when pressure becomes unbearable and to start acting when action is necessary. A Europe that decides early would be stronger than a Europe that merely responds to crises. Only then could it truly become a shaper of the new world order—rather than its captive.
For more analyses on the hidden forces shaping global politics, see our Hidden Geopolitics series.